Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 13 brokers · 363 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
Thirteen brokers model NICE as a cloud transition that is nearly complete: cloud rises from 76% of revenue in FY-2025 to 86% by FY-2028, while legacy product and on-prem services shrink in absolute dollars every year. Consensus on the cloud line is tight; the modeling debate is concentrated in how fast the legacy base fades. Segment, geographic and billings detail rest on far fewer brokers.
Cloud drives the model: 76% of revenue today, rising to 86% by FY-2028
Cloud revenue is modeled to grow every year while product and on-prem services decline in absolute terms; by FY-2028 cloud reaches 86% of the mix and product just 3%.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue - Operating | $2.94bn | $3.18bn | $3.48bn | $3.89bn | +8.1% | 13 |
| Total revenue - Cloud - Operating | $2.23bn | $2.55bn | $2.90bn | $3.36bn | +14.1% | 13 |
| Total revenue - Services excl. cloud - Operating | $563.30m | $495.77m | $456.81m | $428.15m | -12.0% | 13 |
| Total revenue - Product - Operating | $143.17m | $135.45m | $118.11m | $106.15m | -5.4% | 13 |
| Revenue mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue mix - Cloud solutions - Operating(%) | 75.8% | 80.1% | 83.3% | 85.7% | +4.4pt | 13 |
| Revenue mix - Services excl. cloud - Operating(%) | 19.3% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | -3.7pt | 13 |
| Revenue mix - Products - Operating(%) | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | -0.6pt | 13 |
Consensus is tight on cloud; the debate is how fast legacy fades
Brokers cluster within a few points on the cloud line but split materially on the pace of legacy decline, with services excl. cloud showing the widest FY-2028 quartile spread.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue - Services excl. cloud - Operating | FY-2028E | $421.82m | $398.66m–$464.74m | $369.54m–$477.23m | 10 |
| Total revenue - Product - Operating | FY-2027E | $118.47m | $111.68m–$119.36m | $107.56m–$136.99m | 13 |
| Total revenue - Financial crimes - Operating | FY-2027E | $587.25m | $558.27m–$628.98m | $499.71m–$642.37m | 7 |
Financial crimes is the faster-growing unit within a CX-led mix
Financial crimes is modeled to grow faster than customer interaction yet holds a steady ~17% of revenue; both lines rest on only 4-7 brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue - Customer interaction - Operating | $2.42bn | $2.64bn | $2.87bn | $3.16bn | +8.7% | 6 |
| Total revenue - Financial crimes - Operating | $488.41m | $544.98m | $586.26m | $592.07m | +11.6% | 7 |
| Revenue mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue mix - Customer interaction - Operating(%) | 83.2% | 82.9% | 82.8% | 83.5% | -0.4pt | 6 |
| Revenue mix - Financial crimes - Operating(%) | 16.8% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 15.5% | +0.4pt | 7 |
Growth is recurring: billings and recurring revenue climb with cloud
Recurring revenue and total billings are modeled to rise each year, consistent with the cloud trajectory; only 5-7 brokers cover these lines, so read them as directional.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue - Recurring | $2.63bn | $2.91bn | $3.22bn | $3.59bn | +10.8% | 7 |
| Total billings | $2.96bn | $3.19bn | $3.46bn | $3.71bn | +7.7% | 6 |
Segment, geographic and billings lines rest on few brokers
The product-line, Americas/EMEA/APAC and billings splits are modeled by only 4-7 brokers versus 13 on the P&L; geographic estimates were last revised in May 2026 and some FY-2025 segment figures date to November 2025. A single-broker outlier moves these medians more than on the headline lines.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.